2832-2022, 2898-2023

Project objectives: The project will respond to the government's request by providing technical assistance to assess the impact of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy system and use this as input to produce a set of forecasting scenarios to foresee energy system developments as the war progresses.

Once the scenario modelling is complete, the project will use forecasts resulting from scenario modelling to inform policy options, such as those presented as part of the National Recovery Plan, as well as feasibility studies for individual projects best positioned to address the war-related loss of energy infrastructure.

Finally, the insights from these assessments and studies will inform the development of an updated Energy Strategy that will provide guidance for the long-term post-war development of the energy sector aligned with the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement and the Paris Agreement.

Due to the volatility and unpredictability of the situation, the project will be implemented in two distinct phases: • Phase 1 (October 2022 - January 2023) dedicated to the analysis of risks and potential impacts, determination of assumptions, development of scenarios and delivery of theoretical training of the representatives of the Ministry of Energy on data gathering and preparatory work on scenario modelling, as well as the update of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine document (excluding the supporting documentation). • Phase 2 (January - March 2023) is dedicated to the development of the implementation plan and all supporting documents for the updated Energy Strategy of Ukraine, and delivery of the practical training to the representatives of the Ministry of Energy on the operation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator for the long-term scenario modelling and interpretation of the resulting data.