Implementation Audit of Transport Model Development & Analysis

The PLANET Framework Model (PFM) is designed, maintained and used to forecast the impact on demand, revenue and benefits of rail schemes such as HS2.

It is based on a model originally developed by the Strategic Rail Authority to support their high speed line study in 2001 but since then the model has been extensively developed, fully re-estimated and updated by HS2 Ltd.

Model development and day to day model use risks introducing human error or corruption of calculations.

Incorrect or weak modelling could undermine both HS2 Ltd’s reputation and support for the project.

HS2 Ltd has therefore established a multi-layered quality assurance (QA) regime to ensure our models and analysis are evidence based, transparent, results are understood and there are no material errors.

Model audit to verify the implementation of model development and analysis is in line with the documented method and inputs is a key part of our QA regime and helps to ensure we comply with DfT’s QA guidance, “Strength in Numbers .” The intention is to seek an External Provider of transport model audit services, who is demonstrably independent of any conflicting model development and analysis both at contract award and for the duration of the contract.

The need for these services is anticipated to continue until approval of the Phase 2 Hybrid Bill, towards the end of the current Parliament.

Model audit will concern new transport models developed and used by HS2 Ltd and incremental enhancements and use of PFM.

In future, as HS2 Ltd’s forecasting and modelling needs evolve, HS2 Ltd may wish to explore forecasting models other than PFM, therefore this contract should not limit itself to audit of PFM even though this would be the primary focus of the work over the next 1-2 years.

Tenders will be invited from organisations accredited under the Rail Industry Provider Quantification Scheme (RISQS), product code 07.12.04 Operational Planning and accredited suppliers are encouraged to register on HS2's Supplier Portal before 1 March 2016.