Analysis of European Security of Supply Scenarios for winter 2022/23 and Research on LNG Market Contracting Structures and Flexibility

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is looking to commission external research to improve our understanding of natural gas and liquified natural gas markets in the coming years. We have outlined one project (Lot 1) to analyse Europe's security of natural gas supply in winter 2022/23 and a second project (Lot 2) on the contract structures in the global Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) market

A key aim of these research projects will be to consider how the global LNG market may fair under certain stress tests and the implications of this for European energy security. This will involve an understanding of future supply and demand projections under various future scenarios as well as the contracting arrangements in the current and future LNG markets. This will allow the UK to have an evidence-based understanding of how, and to what extent, the LNG market will be able to serve the UK and Europe over the coming winter, 2022/2023 and beyond.

The research will be split into two Lots:

Lot 1:

- Project 1a: Analysis of LNG availability to Europe - focussed on global and regional LNG markets under different outlooks and consideration of key events which could stress the LNG market and the implications for availability of LNG to European markets; and

- Project 1b: European Energy Security Assessment - requiring a contractor to review and validate the assumptions of a European gas market model tool created by BEIS to ensure it is fit for purpose and draws on best available evidence

Lot 2:

- Project 2: Analysis of LNG Contracting Structures