Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England

The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has a statutory duty to report to Parliament with an independent assessment of the UK Government’s progress in implementing its National Adaptation Programme. This programme, published in July 2013, sets out the Government’s objectives and policies for adaptation primarily in England, addressing the risks and opportunities identified by the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), first published in January 2012.

In 2015, the ASC produced its first statutory assessment of the National Adaptation Programme. The report assessed the extent to which progress was being made in adapting to climate change across England. The ASC reported on progress through a series of adaptation priorities. Each priority was given a traffic light score to represent whether appropriate plans were in place, actions were occurring as set out, and trends in vulnerability were moving in the right direction. The ASC also provided a set of recommendations for further action as a result of this analysis, which the Government subsequently responded to.

The ASC’s analysis that underpinned its 2015 report was based on a mixture of policy appraisal and indicators to show how preparedness is changing over time. The ASC’s indicator set is made up of 182 metrics that measure observed changes through time in the following components of adaptation:

a) Indicators of risk. These measure changes in the exposure and vulnerability of a particular sector to the weather. The trends in these indicators in the future will be sensitive to climate change as well as other factors such as changes to society, economic growth and demographic change (for example, the distribution of tree pests and pathogens).

b) Indicators of adaptation action. These aim to measure the extent of actions being taken to reduce the risks from climate change (for example, actions to increase water efficiency, or develop flood defences). In particular, the ASC is interested in monitoring the uptake of low-regret adaptation actions.

c) Indicators of climate impact. These track the realised impacts of weather on the economy, society and environment. The impacts are a net result of the risk factors and the effect of adaptation actions (for example, the cost of crop losses from extreme weather events). These indicators are less useful for the ASC for tracking progress because impacts will vary year to year due to the natural variability in weather, but are still useful as context.

The ASC is required to produce a second progress report on the National Adaptation Programme by the end of June 2017. This report will consider any changes in policy and action since the first report was produced in 2015, and include any updates in the evidence base. The report will include any updates to the ASC’s existing indicator set with more recent data, and possibly new indicators where appropriate.